>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> tear down this wall. >> i can hear you. >> the time for change has come. chris: a president known by a letter. in shorthand he's w. and what we know of him even now is an open question. what was his impact? who was really setting the lead? were those his hands on the wheel? or vice president cheney's? were his moves his own? or reactions to what his father did? or didn't do? father and son? did george w. bush's confidence come simply from how he was born? and what was the role of his faith which he says got him through so much? what did explain this president's success in leading the country into two wars? and finally, what w did to his party. today's republicans are animated by the tea partiers.

still angry at the big spending of the bush years. the -- they're ripping apart over the history of foreign wars and what about the religious right? is today's g.o.p. too deeply embedded to the group that w brought to the dance? hi. i'm chris matthews. from "the washington post" bob woodward, gloria borger from cnn, elisabeth bumiller and michael duffy from "time." so much of our politics, our supreme court legal rulings, our foreign involvement today was shaped by the george w. bush presidency. the president talked about how he saw it and his library dedication. >> when future generations come to this library and study this administration, they're going to find out that we stayed true to our convictions. and that when our freedom came under attack, we made the tough decisions required to keep the american people safe. chris: today, a special extended look at the forces that propelled bush, personally and politically with four correspondents who covered

bush. and even two of whom wrote books about him. and we're going to do this with a series of big themed questions today. first, bob and everyone, was george w. bush a better president than most thought he would be when he came in? after he had lost the popular vote to al gore and took office when the u.s. supreme court settled that florida recount, bob? >> first of all, i hate to do this and argue with your notion that the two wars, iraq and afghanistan, in leading us into them, that that was successful. i think that those -- chris: his success in selling those wars. >> but those wars define his presidency. and we do not know the outcome of either of them. i remember asking bush once, how do you think history is going to judge your iraq war? and he stood in the oval office, shrugged, threw his hands in the air and said history, we won't know, we'll all be dead. which is quite true. >> when he first came in he had

the lowest expectations imaginable. he was going to be an inconsequential one-term president. and then 9-11 happened. and then there was a time after 9-11 when he had soaring popularity ratings. the world wars behind him. the country was behind him. and then we started the run-up to the iraq war and everything changed after that. >> i think the american public has made a judgment if history has not yet on the iraq war. and the judgment is overwhelmingly negative. and i think to a great degree, and you look at george w. bush's popularity ratings now, which are still not high, it's defined not only by the war, but also about the economy. and when he left his presidency, we were on the verge of an economic collapse. that continued and in fact deteriorated. and i think that that the american public has not yet been able to step back and take a look at what else occurred during the bush presidency that might have been of some value. and there were -- there were

some attempts that he made that i give him -- chris: you like the entitlement effort there. >> the entitlement and immigration. chris: as early as november of 2001 who saw the war coming and opposed it. >> i remember a moment in august of 2001 where they had done the tax bill. early on. and they cut the taxes. and we're all writing and saying, ok, now what? what do you got left? what else is coming and what is on your agenda and there wasn't much? they scarfed around looking for what to do. and in a way 9-11 horrible as it was gave him a purpose that he had otherwise lacked at that point. chris: there was a sense in august that he was fading in significance. and let's take a look at one of the huge questions about the bush years. was president bush's own reerks to the 9-11 attacks proportional and did it make sense in time and in retrospect? listen to how he related 9-11 and the invasion of iraq. >> the terrorists attacked us and killed 3,000 of our citizens. they were -- what did iraq have to do with what? >> the attack on the world trade center? >> nothing.

except for it's part of -- and nobody's ever suggested in this administration that adam -- that saddam hussein ordered the attack. and take threats before they fully materialize. chris: michael, there was a major effort within the administration to tie a practicing -- a prague meeting with -- that went on and on. >> dick cheney the vice president would advance that agenda and that line long after nearly everyone else in the bush administration had abandoned it. deeper down intellectually they were thinking something different which is that the world had changed. that it was no longer a -- a cold war world and a series of threats out there that weren't state tied. that could come together at any moment. and cause great harm to people not between governments or countries but just actors. and they were trying to figure out how to stop that. >> i agree with you. because we just saw bush say iraq had nothing to do with it. ok. but it had a lot to do with the thinking and their mindset which after 9-11, they know

what they missed. they know all the clues that were there in the summer of 2001 that quiet summer. and in their minds, it was never again on our watch. chris: elisabeth, when in the fall of 2001, in the weeks thereafter, when there was fighting with wolfowitz trying to raise the issue out at camp david and being pushed back, and somewhere in those weeks bush said ok, i want to hear more about this and began to set contingency plans? >> november of 2001. the beginning of war plans. and beginning preliminary plans. being asked for. >> but there was some rationale for it. in other words, when -- after the first gulf war, they discovered that oh, my god, there was much more of an effort on weapons of mass destruction. and so that was a wake-up call to the cheney mindset of ok, we need to preempt and having written books about this, i think what happened is bush kept getting convinced by the military and rumsfeld and

cheney that it's going to be easier. in fact, worldcom wits was telling people, -- wolfowitz was telling people, if we invade iraq, the war will last two weeks. i remember talking to bush about this. and he said well, i need to see an effective war plan. and they gave him one. and they sold this as something, cheney said, it's going to be flowers and song that we're going to be greeted with when we go into baghdad. chris: there's a great cost-benefit argument. the dangers of not doing were always raised up. and the ease of doing it was raised down. and next question, this was an extraordinary confident president and some say too confident and george w. contributed to that or attributed some of that to his strong religious faith. here's how he the president described it to you, bob, which you wrote about in the state of denial, back in 2006, the president made it clear that he felt that no doubt a higher authority was looking after him. and guiding him. "i get guidance from god in prayer," he said. bob?

>> i remember asking him what advice did you get from your father? bush senior who had gone to war against saddam in the first gulf war? bush sat there and he said, well, i rely on a higher father rather than the earthly father. and so -- chris: that's like the hebrew national tv commercial. i answer to a higher authority. >> well, you know, i think to a certain extent he -- he looked at it that way. and in his own mind, if you track this, and i was able to track it down day by day, hour-by-hour, as -- in the decision making process you to going to war, i think he thought he was going to be a liberator. i think he thought he was going in and they're going to take down those statues of saddam and they're going to actually erect statues of me. chris: anybody else understand the religious piece? >> there was always a sense that he was on something. and i don't want to go too far of a sacred mission. particularly on the freedom agenda.

i think -- and he said -- he gave many speeches about this. chris: we'll get to that. >> freedom was given by god. and in -- to some extent he thought he was carrying it out. there are other people who saw that in him, let's caboose our agenda onto it. let's make them at least whole and free or something. but it was -- it was a mixture of agendas that he's the one who spoke more publicly about it. >> here's what i think the religion or -- i don't think he was taking orders from god. i think that is overstating it. but he -- what -- when he stopped drinking, he had never been especially successful up to the time that he was drinking. he stopped drinking and at the same time, he became more religious. and i think he always felt -- chris: that happens a lot. >> that that -- because of the stopping the drinking and the more -- being more religious that's why -- >> i don't know if most presidents, and you would know this, you've written a book about former presidents, i don't know if most presidents don't become more religious when they're president. they're usually the highest

authority in the room when they're in the room. they are. and they have a need to look somewhere else. for guidance. >> a lonely job. >> it's lonely. it's difficult. >> and who can you confer with? where can you get some census sustenance? -- some sustenance? religion works. >> and life and death and sending people to work. chris: this is a good discussion. the discussions usually about w are smackdowns or trying to defend him and i'm learning a lot. one question people are fascinated by is how much was bush's assertiveness shaped by his thoughts about his father's presidency? here's a revealing interview i think with matt lauer back in 2010. >> there's a lot of psychobabble out there that he and i compete and w is trying to overshadow his father. look, i wanted to run. i had an agenda. i had a team of people. and the truth of the matter is the final motivating factor was my admiration for george bush and i wondered whether or not i had what it took to get into the arena like he did. chris: so interesting use of the third person.

george bush. >> right. chris: proper nouns. >> talking about how he want fod see if he could do as well as -- wanted to see if he could do as well as dad did and a supreme sense of confidence and an understanding that you couldn't ignore the right wing of your party. that was the manifest lesson of the first bush's term. and there have been books written about how this is one gigantic freudian -- chris: what about the scene in the driveway when he comes home one night blatched and his old man confronts him and he says i'll take you on here, mano e mano, dad. >> having three sons this sounds totally normal. chris: oh, come on. >> nothing unusual about that. chris: what about the actual fact, bob, you know this, everybody does, but you acutely, saddam hussein tried to kill his father. >> right. >> and that's -- that's part of the back story here. but i don't think it was a motivation. i think it was -- he wasn't -- this wasn't a vengeance war. there was an atmosphere then of

gee, we're still in danger. let's go do something. this is going to be simple. and the afghan war initially looked like it was going quite well. and made sense. and the c.i.a. and the military had delivered. so let's lean on them again. >> bush wasn't supposed to be the son that became president of the united states. it was supposed to be jeb. jeb was the star. bush was kind of the na'er do well. chris: it often happens.

chris: welcome back to more of our special show on the george w. bush presidency. our next huge question, describe the influence of dick cheney. elisabeth. it's a big one. >> the influence in the first

term was overpowering. very powerful. and the second term, it was much -- very much a lot less. to the point where they had a big fight about -- bush and cheney had a big fight over the pardon of scooter libby which didn't happen. and they're not speaking today. chris: was that the reason for the breakup as of today? or was their breakup between the first and second term? >> i would add that by about 2006, they were -- members of the family and other people in the republican party had begun to say to the president, his advice is really -- when you turn to cheney for domestic stuff, it's not good advice. he's not -- he doesn't really have the public or the voters or the politics. >> and here's the thing. >> and rumsfeld who was cheney's -- and rumsfeld wasn't doing very well. and less people in the white house and bush circle were saying you got to dump rumsfeld. and cheney did not want to do it. chris: was in a thinking that maybe he was wrong to go to iraq and that was part of --

>> no one's ever documented that. chris: not documented. >> rationally you would say there have to be some second doubts. but if you ask bush, i mean, he kept saying about iraq, we're better off that saddam is gone. and that saddam didn't have weapons of mass destruction. but had weapons of mass destruction programs. which is true. is that sufficient reason for war, gloria is quite right. the public -- overwhelmly that was not a necessary war. >> here's the interesting thing about dick cheney to me. i spoke with him early on in his vice-presidency. he said this is why it works so well. because i told the president i have no ambition for higher office. and i can -- therefore give him my unvarnished advice. i'm not going to worry about the political ramifications. well, that is exactly the problem as it turns out. >> everyone was changing --

changed in the country by 9-11 but no one like these guys. they were on the line. and i think cheney -- when bush leaves town, goes away, stays silent for five years. cheney moves across the river and basically is in obama's face almost from day one. he's -- chris: that was a break with tradition. >> that was a real change. and that really defines the two men's differences. >> the big problem that bush had with cheney is a lot of the advice, particularly in the second term, was not very good. cheney wanted to take out the syrian reactor. and talked to people who were there when cheney was just -- we got to do it. and bush is quite relurk tant and cheney won't give -- reluctant and cheney won't give up and at the meeting bush rolls his eyes when cheney is just overadvocating. and i think that was a break. and i think people -- chris: what time was in a? >> it was in 2007. in 2007.

i'm sorry. chris: that's great reporting. >> but that -- when you roll your eyes that your vice president in front of the other -- that's kind of the partnership is over. chris: when you leave town in this town you better have a rear guard left behind you. and cheney left behind -- and smart to stay on the eastern shore. most presidencies have a lot of people like the kennedys or the reagans, they do well in history. because they have a lot of people making sure they do. and cheney's the one out there, i think. when we come back, did president george w. bush set up the problems his own r [ wind howling ]

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chris: welcome back. there are at least three ways the bush presidency was a precursor for the divisions in the republican party today. think of this. big spending trove up the deficit in those years. and pretty much ignited the tea party movement. wedge politics. especially in the 2004 election activated the evangelical right. and the adventures abroad, the wars we've been talking about led to today's divisions between those like john mccain who supports the wars, and libertarians like rand paul who certainly does not. these are fascinating. let's talk about the tax thing. a lot of people forgotten it. the tea party is having. their own republican party was not vetoing any spending bills. >> big spending republican which was a new phrase. no one had ever heard of one of those. because of the explosion of government after 9-11, the number of tax bills that -- tax cut bills that were passed, the

deficit exploded under bush. and that made the economic wing of the republican party which it liked his policies up to a point and this other group of folks who worry about debt and deficits, that made them unhappy. >> don't forget prescription drug benefits for seniors. chris: unfunded. the republican party used to be party when i was growing up as a party you could easily vote for. and wasn't a big deal and the hard right and now it's narrowed down to because of the bush years he supported it, if you don't pass mustard with the evangelicals you have to be pro-life. you have to be against same sex. it's in the platform. isn't that one of the residues of this presidency that you have to -- you have to toe the line on the cultural issues or not be a nominee? >> yes. chris: has that changed? >> on some of the cultural changes like immigration, bush -- chris: he was good. >> he was out in front. to the rest of his party, what's going on with the immigration is very much what bush was providing in 2007. i also want to go back to the wars. here's what i think is a

legacy. in 2012 election, obama got very little flack for wanting to pull out of afghanistan. from the right. and that is a reflection of a decade of war. because republicans are no longer supporting these wars. >> and on immigration, in his own book, bush writes that one of the regrets of his presidency was that he tried for social security reform before immigration. and that he really should have flipped it and he should have done immigration reform first. >> the giant legacy which we're living with right now is the uncontrolled spending. i mean, he really -- and this is what upsets so many people in the republican party and the whole kind of paul ryan movement is based as a reaction to the bush spending on prescription drug benefits. and -- chris: the big tax cut. >> and never paid for those wars. chris: big tax cuts. wars, and never vetoed a spending bill. when we come back, ronald reagan and bill clinton, wil

chris: welcome back. our final question, and a special show about the bush years. ronald reagan and bill clinton were like bush two termers and history has been kinder to them than when they left office. will the same happen for w? who wants to take this one? go up or down in history? >> i'm going to fall back on my normal position. but i'm going to quote george w. bush. we won't know. we'll all be dead. chris: oh, god. well, a lot of us are curious now. history will get written sooner than that. >> you always have to think about what we don't know. maybe somebody's going to surface in iraq and say actually, saddam had four nukes stowed away in some mountain. and the invasion kept them from being used. >> short of that, i think it's really hard in the immediate future to revise that

presidency. because when -- going to be very hard to get around the cherry picked intelligence on iraq. and those mistakes that were made. and, you know, right now, iraq doesn't look so good as a legacy. >> i don't think it's going to be like harry truman, ok? i don't think so. >> whoever spent 30 years and never really got it done, the difference between hoover and bush, bush doesn't seem to care about -- i guess it doesn't change for him. chris: thanks to a great roundtable. bob woodward, elisabeth bumiller, michael duffy [ male announcer ] so you used the wrong flea killer.

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accept nothing less. right now at 5:00, president obama arrives and assesses the devastation in oklahoma and the aftermath of that deadly tornado. we'll show you his message to the victims. >> several bay area power poles catch fire, leaving about 5,000 people without electricity. why officials are saying it was weather related. and here's a live look. rain is on the way. how's it going to affect your memorial day plans? we'll show you. good evening. i'm diane dwyer. >> and i'm terry mcsweeney. we begin tonight with the devastation in oklahoma. today, president obama got a firsthand look at the destruction in the city of moore. he spent the day touring the damage, meeting with survivors and voluntee